Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”